Superintelligence Preparedness Clock
CABIER research · LUMINAIRE assessment
Superintelligence Preparedness Clock
Adaptation / capability interval
6.0×
Service share without fallback on withdrawal
60.0%
Adaptation takes longer than capability changes in this scenario. The unsupported share is dependency multiplied by the fraction lacking fallback, not a probability of collapse.
Electricity: map system dependencies, confirm independent capacity and rehearse withdrawal before curtailment.
Healthcare: map system dependencies, confirm independent capacity and rehearse withdrawal before curtailment.
Interbank liquidity: map system dependencies, confirm independent capacity and rehearse withdrawal before curtailment.
Eight Early-Warning Scenarios
Source: CABIER Consulting. Proposed responses and scenario classifications, not proof of tested controls.
CABIER classification: Observed
Concentrated dependency failure
Critical services relying on a single model or compute provider
Map dependencies; set impact tolerances for model loss.
CABIER classification: Emerging
Correlated model error
Many institutions acting on the same model outputs
Diversify or independently evaluate shared outputs.
CABIER classification: Emerging
Machine-to-machine compounding
Agents transacting with agents without human checkpoints
Bound agent authority; hold irreversible actions.
CABIER classification: Observed
Integrity attack on derived intelligence
Poisoned retrieval, prompt injection, compromised agents
Protect provenance and evaluate outputs before action.
CABIER classification: Emerging
Cognitive dependency of public decisions
Public decisions relying on systems that cannot be inspected
Preserve domestic evaluation capacity and alternatives.
CABIER classification: Contingent
Unsafe shutdown
A system too embedded to stop without service failure
Design and rehearse staged curtailment.
CABIER classification: Contingent
Persistent loss of control
Systems resisting interruption or acting outside authority
Containment, multilateral notice and controllability case.
CABIER classification: Contingent
Human retaliation and intelligence conflict
Attacks on compute, networks or data; cascading defensive disconnects
Protect fallback services; map disconnect consequences.
Observed is the source’s classification, not independent confirmation by LUMINAIRE. Contingent scenarios are possibilities, not predictions.
LUMINAIRE and CABIER Consulting are affiliated platforms. The assessment is an educational adaptation, not an independent audit.