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    LUMINAIRE - Illuminating the Age of Intelligence
    Forecast Board

    LUMINAIRE Forecast Board

    Probabilities on the questions that decide capital allocation over the next four quarters. Each number is a stated blend of prediction-market odds, poll aggregates and our structural model, with the resolution condition published before the question opens. Nothing here is a wager.

    Open questions
    12
    Mean Brier, closed questions
    0.116
    Directionally correct
    8/8
    Blend weightsMarkets 50% · Polls 20% · iQ model 30%See the full track record
    AI and Compute

    Will a top-five hyperscaler guide AI capex lower before year end?

    30%
    Blended
    Markets
    27%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    34%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Dec 31, 2026121 days openInput spread 7 pts
    Your forecast30%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    AI and Compute

    Will a second AI-thesis fund above $500M disclose a forced unwind?

    44%
    Blended
    Markets
    41%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    48%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Mar 31, 2027211 days openInput spread 7 pts
    Your forecast44%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Macro and Rates

    Will the Federal Reserve cut the target range before December 2026?

    59%
    Blended
    Markets
    62%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    58%
    weight 20%
    iQ model
    55%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Dec 31, 2026121 days openInput spread 7 pts
    Your forecast59%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Housing and Credit

    Will US foreclosure starts rise more than 20% year over year?

    44%
    Blended
    Markets
    n/a
    no source
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    44%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jun 30, 2027302 days openInput spread 0 pts
    Your forecast44%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Housing and Credit

    Will a US regional bank take an office writedown above 15% of its CRE book?

    35%
    Blended
    Markets
    33%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    39%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Mar 31, 2027211 days openInput spread 6 pts
    Your forecast35%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Digital Assets

    Will XRP underperform Bitcoin over the next two quarters?

    60%
    Blended
    Markets
    58%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    64%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Mar 31, 2027211 days openInput spread 6 pts
    Your forecast60%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Digital Assets

    Will tokenized Treasury products exceed $50B outstanding?

    50%
    Blended
    Markets
    47%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    56%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jun 30, 2027302 days openInput spread 9 pts
    Your forecast50%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Elections and Policy

    Will Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?

    62%
    Blended
    Markets
    64%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    61%
    weight 20%
    iQ model
    59%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jan 3, 2027124 days openInput spread 5 pts
    Your forecast62%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Elections and Policy

    Will Republicans hold the US Senate after the 2026 midterms?

    66%
    Blended
    Markets
    68%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    63%
    weight 20%
    iQ model
    66%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jan 3, 2027124 days openInput spread 5 pts
    Your forecast66%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Markets and Capital

    Will an AI-native company list above a $100B valuation?

    51%
    Blended
    Markets
    52%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    49%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jun 30, 2027302 days openInput spread 3 pts
    Your forecast51%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    AI and Compute

    Will a Chinese lab publish a model at frontier parity on public benchmarks?

    49%
    Blended
    Markets
    44%
    weight 50%
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    57%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jun 30, 2027302 days openInput spread 13 pts
    Your forecast49%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    Macro and Rates

    Will global debt exceed $340 trillion?

    71%
    Blended
    Markets
    n/a
    no source
    Polls
    n/a
    no source
    iQ model
    71%
    weight 30%
    Resolves Jun 30, 2027302 days openInput spread 0 pts
    Your forecast71%

    Stored in your browser only. No stake, no payout, nothing is submitted.

    How the board is built

    How does the LUMINAIRE Forecast Board work?

    Each question carries up to three inputs: prediction-market implied odds, a poll or survey aggregate where one exists, and the LUMINAIRE structural model. The published number is a weighted blend of 50% markets, 20% polls and 30% model, renormalised when an input is unavailable.

    Can I bet or place a stake on these forecasts?

    No. There is no stake, no payout, no order book and no money involved. Readers can record their own probability estimate, which is stored in their own browser for comparison only.

    How is accuracy measured?

    Every closed question is scored with the Brier score, the squared distance between the published probability and the outcome. A score of 0.25 is equivalent to forecasting 50% on everything. The full record, including the misses, is published on the track record page.

    What makes a forecast question valid?

    It must have a single unambiguous resolution condition tied to a public release or filing, and a fixed deadline. Questions whose resolution depends on interpretation are not published.

    Midterms 2026 forecastTrack record and calibrationUS Debt ClockWorld Debt Clock

    Editorial analysis only. Forecast probabilities are not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not an offer to trade any contract. LUMINAIRE does not accept stakes.